{ "experiment_version": "2.0.0", "dataset_version": "2026-10-14-v1", "input_sha256": "06338291d4540acfe133f233f4c6ba8d7f43631104bb476f54c5efbd2e8839cb", "method": "Inclusive local-date coverage with UTC-noon iteration; departures counted by route/direction; no inference of cancellations.", "route_profiles": [ { "port": "Liverpool", "direction": "in", "start": "2026-09-21", "end": "2026-11-30", "removeVessel": "none", "observed_days": 71, "baseline_departures": 43, "departures": 43, "removed_departures": 0, "days_with_departures": 43, "days_without_records": 28, "longest_zero_record_run": 5, "weekday": [ { "day": "Sun", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 10, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Mon", "observed_days": 11, "departures": 7, "days_with_departures": 7 }, { "day": "Tue", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 2, "days_with_departures": 2 }, { "day": "Wed", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 2, "days_with_departures": 2 }, { "day": "Thu", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 6, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Fri", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 6, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Sat", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 10, "days_with_departures": 10 } ], "daily": [ { "date": "2026-09-21", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "departures": 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"date": "2026-10-31", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-08", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 } ], "gaps": [ { "start": "2026-09-29", "end": "2026-09-30", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-06", "end": "2026-10-07", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-13", "end": "2026-10-14", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-20", "end": "2026-10-21", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-11-03", "end": "2026-11-06", "days": 4 }, { "start": "2026-11-09", "end": "2026-11-13", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-16", "end": "2026-11-20", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-23", "end": "2026-11-27", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-30", "end": "2026-11-30", "days": 1 } ], "vesselCounts": [ { "vessel": "M", "count": 35, "share": 0.813953488372093 }, { "vessel": "BC", "count": 8, "share": 0.18604651162790697 } ], "vessel_concentration_hhi": 0.697133585722012, "weekdayPrediction": { "status": "evaluated", "train_days": 49, "test_days": 22, "split_date": "2026-11-09", "weekday_mae": 0.4935064935064935, "constant_mae": 0.6159554730983303, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-11-09", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 } ], "scope": "Retrospective chronological 70/30 backtest of baseline source records, not a future or operational forecast. Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. Scenario removes all records for a vessel without substitutions." }, { "port": "Liverpool", "direction": "out", "start": "2026-09-21", "end": "2026-11-30", "removeVessel": "none", "observed_days": 71, "baseline_departures": 43, "departures": 43, "removed_departures": 0, "days_with_departures": 43, "days_without_records": 28, "longest_zero_record_run": 5, "weekday": [ { "day": "Sun", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 10, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Mon", "observed_days": 11, "departures": 7, "days_with_departures": 7 }, { "day": "Tue", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 2, "days_with_departures": 2 }, { "day": "Wed", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 2, "days_with_departures": 2 }, { "day": "Thu", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 6, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Fri", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 6, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Sat", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 10, "days_with_departures": 10 } ], "daily": [ { "date": "2026-09-21", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-03", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-04", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-05", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-06", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-07", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-08", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-10", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-27", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-29", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-30", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-02", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-08", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, 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"departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 } ], "gaps": [ { "start": "2026-09-29", "end": "2026-09-30", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-06", "end": "2026-10-07", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-13", "end": "2026-10-14", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-10-20", "end": "2026-10-21", "days": 2 }, { "start": "2026-11-03", "end": "2026-11-06", "days": 4 }, { "start": "2026-11-09", "end": "2026-11-13", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-16", "end": "2026-11-20", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-23", "end": "2026-11-27", "days": 5 }, { "start": "2026-11-30", "end": "2026-11-30", "days": 1 } ], "vesselCounts": [ { "vessel": "M", "count": 35, "share": 0.813953488372093 }, { "vessel": "BC", "count": 8, "share": 0.18604651162790697 } ], "vessel_concentration_hhi": 0.697133585722012, "weekdayPrediction": { "status": "evaluated", "train_days": 49, "test_days": 22, "split_date": "2026-11-09", "weekday_mae": 0.4935064935064935, "constant_mae": 0.6159554730983303, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-11-09", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.2857142857142857, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0.8571428571428571, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.7551020408163265 } ], "scope": "Retrospective chronological 70/30 backtest of baseline source records, not a future or operational forecast. Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. Scenario removes all records for a vessel without substitutions." }, { "port": "Heysham", "direction": "in", "start": "2026-09-21", "end": "2026-11-30", "removeVessel": "none", "observed_days": 71, "baseline_departures": 122, "departures": 122, "removed_departures": 0, "days_with_departures": 67, "days_without_records": 4, "longest_zero_record_run": 1, "weekday": [ { "day": "Sun", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 12, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Mon", "observed_days": 11, "departures": 18, "days_with_departures": 11 }, { "day": "Tue", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Wed", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Thu", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Fri", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 16, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Sat", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 16, "days_with_departures": 10 } ], "daily": [ { "date": "2026-09-21", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, 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"departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-13", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-14", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-15", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-16", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-20", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-21", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-22", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, 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"departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-03", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-08", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "departures": 0, "baseline_departures": 0, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "departures": 1, "baseline_departures": 1, "removed_departures": 0 } ], "gaps": [ { "start": "2026-11-08", "end": "2026-11-08", "days": 1 }, { "start": "2026-11-15", "end": "2026-11-15", "days": 1 }, { "start": "2026-11-22", "end": "2026-11-22", "days": 1 }, { "start": "2026-11-29", "end": "2026-11-29", "days": 1 } ], "vesselCounts": [ { "vessel": "BC", "count": 122, "share": 1 } ], "vessel_concentration_hhi": 1, "weekdayPrediction": { "status": "evaluated", "train_days": 49, "test_days": 22, "split_date": "2026-11-09", "weekday_mae": 0.6493506493506493, "constant_mae": 0.712430426716141, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-11-09", "actual": 1, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "actual": 1, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "actual": 1, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "actual": 1, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 } ], "scope": "Retrospective chronological 70/30 backtest of baseline source records, not a future or operational forecast. Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. Scenario removes all records for a vessel without substitutions." }, { "port": "Heysham", "direction": "out", "start": "2026-09-21", "end": "2026-11-30", "removeVessel": "none", "observed_days": 71, "baseline_departures": 123, "departures": 123, "removed_departures": 0, "days_with_departures": 63, "days_without_records": 8, "longest_zero_record_run": 2, "weekday": [ { "day": "Sun", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 12, "days_with_departures": 6 }, { "day": "Mon", "observed_days": 11, "departures": 23, "days_with_departures": 11 }, { "day": "Tue", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Wed", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Thu", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 16, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Fri", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 20, "days_with_departures": 10 }, { "day": "Sat", "observed_days": 10, "departures": 12, "days_with_departures": 6 } ], "daily": [ { "date": "2026-09-21", "departures": 3, "baseline_departures": 3, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-22", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-26", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-27", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-28", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-29", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-09-30", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, "removed_departures": 0 }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "departures": 2, "baseline_departures": 2, 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"vessel": "BC", "count": 123, "share": 1 } ], "vessel_concentration_hhi": 1, "weekdayPrediction": { "status": "evaluated", "train_days": 49, "test_days": 22, "split_date": "2026-11-09", "weekday_mae": 0.6103896103896104, "constant_mae": 0.6966604823747681, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-11-09", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2.142857142857143, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2.142857142857143, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1.8571428571428572, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1.7142857142857142, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2.142857142857143, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "actual": 2, "predicted": 2, "constant_baseline": 1.9183673469387754 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", 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Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. 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Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. 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"predictions": [ { "date": "2026-11-03", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-04", "actual": 1, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-06", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-08", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-09", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-10", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-11", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-12", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-13", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-15", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-16", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-17", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-18", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-19", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-20", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-22", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-23", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-24", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-25", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-26", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-27", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "actual": 0, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-29", "actual": 1, "predicted": 0, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 }, { "date": "2026-11-30", "actual": 0, "predicted": 1, "constant_baseline": 0.43548387096774194 } ], "scope": "Retrospective chronological 70/30 backtest of baseline source records, not a future or operational forecast. Selected vessel scenario does not alter this backtest." }, "interpretation": "Published-record coverage, not reliability, cancellations, capacity or a prediction. Scenario removes all records for a vessel without substitutions." } ], "nlp_experiment": { "model": "Multinomial Naive Bayes, unigram + bigram, Laplace alpha=1", "training_documents": 24, "test_documents": 12, "correct": 12, "abstentions": 0, "confusion_matrix": { "in": { "in": 6, "out": 0, "abstain": 0 }, "out": { "in": 0, "out": 6, "abstain": 0 } }, "cases": [ { "text": "please travel from Liverpool to douglas", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "please travel from Heysham to douglas", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "please travel from Larne to douglas", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "ferry leaving Liverpool for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "ferry leaving Heysham for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "ferry leaving Larne for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predicted": "in" }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Liverpool", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Heysham", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Larne", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Liverpool", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Heysham", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Larne", "expected": "out", "predicted": "out" } ], "limitations": "Synthetic template-disjoint test only; ports normalised to PORT. Small related phrase set is not real-world validation; score margins are not calibrated probabilities." }, "nlp_challenge": { "test_set": "synthetic-challenge-v2", "cases": [ { "text": "please travel from Liverpool to douglas", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "please travel from Heysham to douglas", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "please travel from Larne to douglas", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving Liverpool for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving Heysham for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving Larne for the isle of man", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Liverpool", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Heysham", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "please travel from douglas to Larne", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Liverpool", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Heysham", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "ferry leaving the isle of man for Larne", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "do not sail from Liverpool to Douglas", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "from Liverpool via Heysham to Douglas", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "cancel my ferry from Larne to Douglas", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "cheapest ticket please", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "from Dublin to Douglas", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "Liverpool tomorrow", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "Douglaz to Liverpool", "expected": null, "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": null, "bigrams": null } }, { "text": "from Douglas to Heysham", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "out", "bigrams": "out" } }, { "text": "from Larne to the island", "expected": "in", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "in" } }, { "text": "from the island to Larne", "expected": "out", "predictions": { "majority_in": "in", "unigrams": "in", "bigrams": "in" } } ], "metrics": { "majority_in": { "correct": 7, "total": 22, "answered": 22, "selective_accuracy": 0.3181818181818182, "answer_coverage": 1, "unsupported_false_answers": 7 }, "unigrams": { "correct": 15, "total": 22, "answered": 15, "selective_accuracy": 0.5333333333333333, "answer_coverage": 0.6818181818181818, "unsupported_false_answers": 0 }, "bigrams": { "correct": 21, "total": 22, "answered": 15, "selective_accuracy": 0.9333333333333333, "answer_coverage": 0.6818181818181818, "unsupported_false_answers": 0 } }, "limitations": "Constructed examples, not independent human evaluation. Abstention correctness and answer coverage are reported separately; no real-world performance claim." }, "data_quality": { "record_count": 402, "duplicate_keys": [], "missing_record_source_urls": 331, "durationGroups": [ { "group": "Heysham|out|BC", "n": 123, "median_clock_minutes": 225, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Liverpool|out|M", "n": 35, "median_clock_minutes": 165, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Liverpool|out|BC", "n": 8, "median_clock_minutes": 270, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Heysham|in|BC", "n": 122, "median_clock_minutes": 225, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [ { "date": "2026-10-04", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-10-31", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-11-01", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-11-14", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-11-21", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "departure": "01:45", "duration": 255 } ] }, { "group": "Liverpool|in|M", "n": 35, "median_clock_minutes": 165, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Liverpool|in|BC", "n": 8, "median_clock_minutes": 270, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Larne|out|M", "n": 28, "median_clock_minutes": 180, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Larne|in|M", "n": 28, "median_clock_minutes": 165, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Larne|out|BC", "n": 8, "median_clock_minutes": 315, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] }, { "group": "Larne|in|BC", "n": 7, "median_clock_minutes": 315, "mad_clock_minutes": 0, "candidates": [] } ], "interpretation": "Robust descriptive screening within port/direction/vessel groups. MAD=0 flags nonmedian values for inspection only; candidate is not proof of error. Local clock durations are not DST-correct elapsed times." }, "limitations": [ "Published autumn snapshot only", "Synthetic language evaluation only", "Vessel removal assumes no substitutions", "Not demand, reliability, safety or capacity analysis" ] }